By Kai Hattendorf, Global Business Events Industry Strategist:
I rarely report on single conference sessions, but recently in Singapore there was one that stood out to me, as it really showed the regional take on geopolitical developments. My take: The region is no longer waiting for Washington, as panelists shared their assesment that, while the global order is fragmenting, it is not collapsing. And U.S. leadership is no longer assumed.
“The biggest losers from Trump’s trade wars aren’t in China,” said Donald Low, Professor at the The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. He pointed to rising domestic costs, weakened U.S. science and tech, and declining institutional credibility – costs that, in his view, fall most heavily on lower-income Americans. Lee Sue-Ann, Senior Fellow at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute (ISEAS), described the U.S. as “stuck in a grieving process.” Institutions are eroding, social divisions are widening, and foreign policy is swinging between aggression and retreat. Ye-Min Wu, Regional Director at the Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue (HD), underscored the reputational costs of volatility. She recalled an American negotiator describing the U.S. as “an 800-pound gorilla”—expected to fight every battle, constantly scrutinized, often isolated. “The gorilla is often lonely,” she quoted, “because when the fight gets messy, everyone hides behind it.”
The panel rejected the notion that globalisation is over. Instead, they described a shift: from dependency to diversification, from singular alliances to layered regional ties. China remains central, but no longer singular. The U.S. remains powerful, but unpredictable.
Low said the world is already adapting. Trade flows are adjusting. Supply chains are hedging. U.S.–China interdependence is giving way to what many describe as “China Plus One.” Countries, he argued, are no longer waiting for top-down coordination. Strategic shifts, once debated in multilateral forums, are now happening independently and in parallel.
China’s post-COVID recovery has clearly lost momentum. Demand is weak. Prices are falling. Property markets are stalled. “It’s not collapse,” said Low, “but it’s stagnation.” He warned that China’s industrial overcapacity—long denied by Beijing—is now acknowledged, but will take years to correct.
Lee noted that the regional impact is already being felt. As demand from the U.S. and Europe softens, she said, Southeast Asian markets could see a surge in redirected Chinese exports. “There’s a lot of concern that if demand for Chinese goods is somehow curtailed… where will those goods go?” she said. “Will it come to Southeast Asia and further flood the markets with cheap goods?”
Raw power is no longer enough. Influence flows through trust, consistency, and the ability to convene.
A takeaway from the session: raw power is no longer enough. Influence flows through trust, consistency, and the ability to convene. Analytically, trade flows are rerouting and supply chains are splitting—not as part of a grand design, but through a thousand local adjustments.
No one on stage expected the U.S. to reclaim its postwar role. Nor did they believe China would step into it. What emerged instead was a picture of global affairs managed through short-term alignment, institutional workaround, and risk balancing. Lee argued that the current system isn’t broken but stalled. She said governments will need to retreat from past expectations, find common ground under new constraints, and rebuild global terms gradually.
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